245 Miles—Iowa Wild and Chicago Wolves Tangle in Critical Weekend Series.
Technically, it’s still a regular season home at home set between the Iowa Wild and Chicago Wolves. You might as well call it a playoff game, or even a mini-playoff series. The pendulum will swing and shift a team’s playoff fate. It’s inevitable, time is running out on the 2022-23 AHL regular season and the two clubs are battling, along with Rockford, for the last few remaining spots in the AHL’s Central Division.
Heading into the weekend the top two teams in the division, Texas and Milwaukee, had both clinched a playoff berth. That leaves third place Manitoba, fourth place Iowa, and fifth place Rockford, followed by Chicago, who is charging up the back stretch to close the gap. Manitoba seems to be a lock to qualify, but Iowa is still within striking distance of third. A split this weekend with Chicago would all but punch the ticket for Iowa. As far as playoff spots, divisional seeds 1-3 get a first round bye, while the 4 and 5 seed play a best of three. In all, only three spots are left in the Central, and the Moose would need a major collapse to fall out. Essentially, it’s two spots and three teams.
“It's a playoff mindset in the same way when you get into a playoff round, you're trying to send that team home and trying to end their season”, explained Iowa Captain Dakota Mermis. “And without a doubt, this kind of has that feel for us. We know that if we can take care of business, that it puts us in a great situation moving forward and we have a chance to make it harder on them. It's almost like an early playoff atmosphere for us and we're certainly approaching it that way.”
“There is a lot at stake,” said Iowa Head Coach Tim Army. “We got eight points that we need to get in order to lock up a playoff spot in the next five. We got some work to do and it sets up to be a huge weekend obviously with where both teams are in the standings.”
There is no doubt, the Wild have a fair amount of heavy lifting to do if they want to play in the postseason. The heavy lift is also known as the Chicago Wolves, the 2022 AHL Calder Cup Champions and affiliate (for now) of the NHL’s Carolina Hurricanes. In case you were not tracking, Carolina’s AHL affiliate has won the last two Calder Cups awarded (2019, 2022). The AHL did not hold playoffs in 2020 or 2021 due to COVID. There is a championship pedigree that resides within that Wolves locker room.
The Wolves were seven games below .500 on Feb. 3. Since then, Chicago has posted a 16-6-1-2 mark to close the gap. What has helped immensely has been Chicago’s success over Iowa this year, especially a concerning run of four straight wins that has seen the Wolves outscore the Wild 20-8. When Iowa was on a 14-game point streak, Chicago was the team to end the run. From Christmas until Feb 10, Iowa only lost two games in regulation. You guessed it, Chicago.
There is no doubt, the Wild are facing a big mental hurdle this weekend. Sometimes, teams can just be a matchup issue.
“I think just the way they play, they're a good match up for us,” said forward Steven Fogarty. “Obviously, we know the success they had last year. There's definitely some turnover, but, you know, there's definitely some guys that were there and know what it takes to win. I think there are just certain teams in this league that you may have difficulty matching up against or match up well against.”
Despite, Iowa’s well documented runs (good and bad), head coach Tim Army was quick to point out his team has shown resilience with a handful of critical wins from his club when they needed them most. For example, a two-game set with a sweep over Grand Rapids when the Griffins were making a push. A pair of gargantuan wins over Manitoba in March helped close the gap and make third place attainable. He feels his club has proven lately to have the mettle to win. He expects that intensity to be on display this weekend.
“It'll be a playoff weekend,” added Army. “There's no question. It's going to be thick. It's going to be very intense. But I think that as far as urgency, that desperation, we've been in that mode since we lost the six games coming out of the All-Star break.”
In order to show you are a playoff team, you have to close teams out when the window presents itself. In addition, you have to get past your nemesis of the season or you may struggle to find a playoff spot. The window for Iowa to prove it is a playoff contender is here.
What’s Left:
Iowa has five games remaining. Two with Chicago, one with Milwaukee, and two at Texas. Magic number to clinch is eight.
Chicago has six games remaining. Two with Iowa, one at Rockford and Milwaukee, before finishing at home with Grand Rapids and Manitoba. Magic number to clinch is 15.
Rockford has six games remaining. Three with Milwaukee (2 away), one with Chicago and Manitoba at home. As well as one at Grand Rapids. Magic number to clinch is 11.
Manitoba has five games remaining. One at home with Grand Rapids, then four road games. The Moose visit Texas for two, then head to Rockford and Chicago to wrap up the season. Magic number to clinch is five.
Best Case Scenario:
Iowa takes care of business this weekend with a pair of regulation wins.
Likely Scenario:
Iowa and Chicago both earn three points over the weekend. Which punts the issue to later in the week. As much of a push as Chicago has made, it’s hard to imagine them finding a way in.
Worst Case Scenario:
Chicago continues its dominance of Iowa and post a pair of regulation wins to pull within a point of Iowa after the weekend set. Wild struggles to find points against Milwaukee and Texas.
Wild Card:
Manitoba is struggling down the stretch with five straight losses heading into the weekend. If they don’t win in the last home game of the season, it could spell big trouble for the Moose with four road games to conclude the year.
Odd Man Out:
Manitoba should get in due to one stumble by Chicago or Rockford. Of the three teams, I think Chicago will fall short. Iowa will push Manitoba for the three seed.
